Publications

Impact of public loan guarantees on business growth

This study investigates the impact of public bank loan guarantees on firm performance in Finland, a small and open economy, leveraging a novel empirical approach and detailed financial instrument analysis. We combine registry-based data with records from Finnvera, Finland’s National Promotional Bank, and apply the cuttingedge panel matching methodology of Imai et al. (2023) to address causal inference challenges in this context. Our results reveal that guarantees significantly boost turnover, employment, and total assets, with effects varying by loan purpose. Article was published in Economics Letters in August 2025.

Finnvera's purpose is to complement market shortfalls, but also to ensure that at that same time the market is not distorted elsewhere. In this article, we discuss the grounds for Finnvera's existence from the perspectives of credit constraints, market distortions, stabilisation policy, level playing field and impact. The article by Finnvera CEO Pauli Heikkilä and Chief economist Mauri Kotamäki was originally published in June 2023 in Finnish in the Finnish Economic Association's publication Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja (KAK) 2/2023 (Journal of national economy).

The report commissioned by Finnvera examines the competitiveness of Finland's and Finnvera's export credit services in relation to a group of peer countries/export credit agencies and makes recommendations. The comparison was carried out by the external consultant actoRx Advisers under the leadership of professors Andreas Klasen and Jan Vassard, and the report was published in May 2023.

Finnish exporters lack the tools for financing small export transactions that foreign competitors have at their disposal. At present, Finnish export companies are clearly in a weaker position than their foreign competitors, as the supply of banks to finance small export transactions is insufficient. This can be seen in a study commissioned by Finnvera, which interviewed, among others, 15 domestic and international banks and 40 export companies. On the basis of the study, Finnvera will prepare for the direct small buyer credits in order to accelerate small export transactions.

The research report on the impact of Finnvera’s export financing sets forth to find answers to questions how does Finnvera generate impact, and on what what is Finnvera’s impact. The companies interviewed in the study were major clients of Finnvera (Andritz, Outotec, Valmet, Wärtsilä, Meyer Turku, and Nokia) and a group of SMEs. Most firms like to view Finnvera as an essential and strategic partner in their endeavour for international competitiveness and growth.

This study focuses on the impacts of the largest export guaranteed operations on employment and value added including effects through companies’ value chains. The results suggest that the activities of Meyer and Nokia related to export guarantees create value added accounting for 0.29% (Meyer) and 0.27% (Nokia) of the Finnish GDP. Corresponding employment effects are 0.32 % (Meyer) and 0.12 % (Nokia) of the Finnish total employment. The study is part of the Publications of the Government’s analysis and was published in Finnish, executive summary in English.

A report commissioned by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment on export financing and CIRR system.

The assignment commissioned by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment.The  overall  goal  of  the  assessment  is  to  look  at  selected  ways  to  improve  Finland’s export financing system in order to increase impact and to manage related risks. The assessment was made by an independent international group of researchers with a strong experience on export financing.