Changes in Finnvera’s country risk classification: Argentina upgraded, Brazil downgraded
As a result of Argentina’s favourable prospects, the country’s risk classification has been upgraded to category 6/7.
After an absence of 15 years, Argentina has returned to the international financial market. The new Government appointed late last year has settled the country’s old debt disputes and has been quick to launch political and economic reforms that lean towards the market economy.
“Argentina’s economic situation is still fragile after a long period of economic isolation, but the direction is right. Thanks to recent developments, the country is again eligible for guarantees. The country’s economy is expected to show an upturn next year and the political situation is likely to remain relatively stable, although getting the entire economy onto a sustainable basis will still take time,” Senior Adviser Mika Relander reflects.
Difficulties in the Brazilian economy are seen as greater risks, and the country’s risk classification has therefore been downgraded to 5. The slowdown of the Brazilian economy is already in its fifth consecutive year, and together with the political crisis, the outlook has remained uncertain. However, the worst is believed to be over in Brazil, and the economy is predicted to grow slightly next year. The new Government is also expected to make proposals for measures to invigorate the economy.
“In the longer term, Brazil is a strong and diverse economy that has the prerequisites for emerging from the recession through domestic demand. However, to achieve stronger growth, Brazil needs both structural reforms and a favourable price trend for commodities important to the country’s exports,” Relander says.
Brazil is Finnvera’s third largest market with a country exposure of about two billion euros.
Country classification has an impact on the collateral requirements set by Finnvera for financing export trade. In its operations, Finnvera complies with the minimum premium rates determined by the country category.
Finnvera takes an active part in the activities of the OECD group of country risk experts, which classifies countries at least once a year.
See Finnvera’s country classification map.
Mika Relander, Senior Adviser, tel. +358 29 460 2725